The World Bank warned on Wednesday, 28 October, that global commodity prices are set to jump 23 percent in 2026, driven by rising energy costs and disruption to trade routes during the war in the Middle East. Commodities are the raw materials the world runs on — oil, natural gas, wheat, metals and similar goods — so a jump of this size reaches ordinary households through fuel, food and transport prices.
Why prices are climbing
Energy is doing most of the damage. The World Bank expects energy prices to rise 32 percent in 2026, reversing three years of falls. It puts the average price of Brent crude — the international benchmark for oil — at 91 dollars a barrel in 2026, up from 69 dollars in 2025, before easing to 79 dollars in 2027.
The causes are piling up at once. Cargo shipping has been disrupted by the Middle East war, grain shipments through the Black Sea have run into trouble, and demand for gold — which investors buy as a safe place for money in uncertain times — has stayed high. Oil, natural gas, food and metals prices all rose sharply this year. In September alone, the energy price index jumped 25.7 percent, with crude oil up 21.2 percent and natural gas up 15.3 percent.
Global oil supply is expected to fall 5.2 percent in 2026, the biggest drop in four decades outside the 2020 pandemic recession, because oil stocks have been depleted during the war. Ayhan Kose, the World Bank’s deputy chief economist, said commodity markets are being hit by several major shocks at once, and warned that higher energy costs and trade disruption threaten to worsen inflation, food insecurity and economic growth.
What could make it worse
The forecast could still get worse. The World Bank said prices may climb further if the Middle East conflict escalates or damage to Russian oil infrastructure continues. Forecasters are also warning of the worst El Nino weather effect since 1950 — El Nino is a warming of Pacific Ocean waters that can disrupt rainfall and harvests around the world — which could keep food prices high even if energy eases.
The baseline forecast assumes no major escalation: commodity prices easing by 7 percent in 2027. But that easing depends on conflicts not getting worse, which is far from certain. Foreign ministers from the world’s 20 largest economies meet in Atlanta, Georgia, on Friday, with the wars in the Middle East and Ukraine high on the agenda.
What it means for Pakistan
For Pakistani readers, this warning is directly about the household budget. Pakistan imports most of its oil, so a year of dearer crude means a heavier import bill, pressure on petrol and diesel prices, and higher transport and food costs. Fertiliser and food imports also get costlier when energy and grain markets are disrupted, which feeds into inflation — a general rise in prices that reduces what money can buy.
There is one small comfort: the World Bank expects some easing in 2027. But with the forecast built on the hope that conflicts do not escalate, families and businesses should plan for expensive energy to last well into next year rather than counting on quick relief.
Sources: Reuters, World Bank. Written in our own words for information only — not investment advice.