Israelis voted on Tuesday, 27 October, in the country’s first national election since the Hamas-led attacks of 7 October 2023, in a close contest that will decide whether Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stays in power after one of the most consequential periods in the country’s history.
A close race for power
Netanyahu, Israel’s longest-serving leader with 19 years in office, is fighting for his political survival. Opinion polls show a close race between his Likud party and its right-wing allies, and a rival alliance led by Gadi Eisenkot, a former military chief of staff who draws support from the right and the centre.
Netanyahu has campaigned on his wartime leadership and his alliance with United States President Donald Trump, who has endorsed him. Eisenkot has accused Netanyahu of relying on fear in his campaign, and says Trump would work with whichever leader the people choose. Neither side has a clear path to forming a government, and if neither can do so, Netanyahu could stay on as caretaker until another election next year.
Why turnout matters
Turnout on Tuesday was strikingly high. Within the first five hours of voting, 31.5 percent of eligible voters had cast ballots — the fastest turnout since Israel’s 1977 election. Analysts believe the surge could point to a strong showing for parties opposed to Netanyahu’s bloc.
Financial markets reacted to the same signal. Israel’s currency, the shekel, jumped nearly 1 percent to a three-week high of 3.05 per dollar, after falling to 3.12 per dollar on Monday. Large banks have warned the shekel could swing as much as 3 percent in either direction depending on the result, a sign of how uncertain the outcome remains.
What happens next
Polling stations closed at 10 p.m. Israel time, when television channels aired exit polls — early estimates of the result based on asking voters how they voted. A clear picture may emerge within hours, but it could take days or even weeks to become final.
Israel’s parliament, the Knesset, has 120 seats, allocated by proportional representation — a system in which parties win seats roughly in proportion to their share of the vote, provided they pass a 3.25 percent threshold. About a dozen parties are thought to have a chance of crossing that threshold, so seat allocation takes time. The final tally is expected by 30 October, with official results formally published on 4 November.
What it means for Pakistan
For Pakistani readers, the importance of this election is regional rather than direct. Israel’s politics shape the wider Middle East, and the Middle East shapes Pakistan’s economy: millions of Pakistanis work in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and other Gulf states, and their remittances — money sent home by workers abroad — are one of Pakistan’s most important sources of foreign exchange.
A stable region protects those jobs and keeps oil flowing through Gulf shipping routes. A more turbulent one does the opposite, pushing oil prices up and putting household budgets under strain. The election result will therefore be watched in Islamabad and in Gulf capitals alike — not for who wins alone, but for whether the next government calms or deepens the region’s tensions.
Sources: Reuters. Written in our own words for information only — not investment advice.